Systems-based forecasting in jail populations (Forthcoming)

Abstract

Jail populations in the United States have grown substantially in recent decades, even as admissions have declined. In many jurisdictions, this growth reflects extended pretrial detention and system bottlenecks that increase operational pressures on local facilities. Yet local jails often lack the resources and analytical capacity to anticipate population changes and evaluate potential policy responses. This study uses administrative data from a mid-sized county in Nebraska to develop a systems-based forecasting framework for examining the mechanisms underlying jail population growth. Applying Vector Autoregression, the analysis models reciprocal relationships among case processing, felony charging, community conditions, and jail population trends. Baseline forecasts indicate that the jail will exceed capacity within one year under current conditions, while policy scenario forecasts estimate the effects of targeted and system-level interventions. Findings suggest that strategies focused solely on reducing the pretrial population may slow growth but are unlikely to fully resolve crowding pressures. More durable reductions require addressing system congestion, particularly processes that extend case processing and length of stay. These findings demonstrate that jail populations reflect interconnected system dynamics rather than isolated practices and highlight the value of forecasting as a decision-support tool for correctional planning. By integrating ongoing population monitoring with policy scenario analysis, jurisdictions can anticipate capacity pressures, evaluate potential reforms, and coordinate interventions targeting the processes driving sustained population growth.

John Ursino

Research Specialist

My research focuses on advancing evidence-based practices in criminal justice. Primary areas of research include evaluating and constructing risk-need assessments to enhance decision-making processes, addressing challenges related to prison and jail crowding, and exploring correctional system reforms.

Zachary Hamilton

Professor

My research centers on innovation in risk and needs assessment development.