Systems-based forecasting in jail populations (Forthcoming)
This study uses administrative data from a mid-sized county in Nebraska to develop a systems-based forecasting framework for examining the mechanisms underlying jail population growth. Applying Vector Autoregression, the analysis models reciprocal relationships among case processing, felony charging, community conditions, and jail population trends. Baseline forecasts indicate that the jail will exceed capacity within one year under current conditions, while policy scenario forecasts estimate the effects of targeted and system-level interventions. Findings suggest that strategies focused solely on reducing the pretrial population may slow growth but are unlikely to fully resolve crowding pressures.
